TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT FRI MAY 03 2024

FORECAST BULLETIN 03 MAY 2024 AT 1900 UTC:

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...UNDER STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET...ENHANCED
CONVECTION IS LIKELY IN PORTIONS OF THE  NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. AT
THE SURFACE...A TROUGH AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. ON FRIDAY...INTERACTION BETWEEN
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT MAXIMA OF 35-60MM HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. ELSEWHERE
SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS...TURKS AND CAICOS...JAMAICA AND THE NORTHEAST
LEEWARD ISLANDS WE CAN EXPECT MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.

ON SATURDAY... A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND EXTENDS EAST OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 35W. A MOIST PLUME
LINGERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN AND CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL MAINTAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. A
GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IS EXPECTED FOR HISPANIOLA...PUERTO
RICO AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHER LEEWARD ISLANDS. A WEAK JET ALOFT
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
ALSO EXPECTED.

BY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FROM PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD...THE WESTERN
PORTION BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.
ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...UNDER CONTINUED
INFLUENCE BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH... A MAXIMA OF 20-40MM
EXPECTED IN HISPANIOLA. IN EAST CUBA  AND PUERTO RICO WE EXPECT A
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS
EXPECTED IN EAST CUBA AND LA HISPANIOLA.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO..EXTENDING FROM A
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. STRONG CONVERGENCE
WILL WORK TO INHIBIT SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. ISOLATED MAXIMA TO REMAIN IN THE 15-35MM RANGE
FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE START DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTS NORTHWARD...ON FRIDAY...A MAXIMA
OF 30-60MM IN EXPECTED IN  WESTERN COLOMBIA AND MAXIMA RANGE OF
20-45MM RANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE AMAZON BASIN. ON SATURDAY.. A
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN NORTHWEST OF COLOMBIA...SOUTH VENEZUELA AND
NORTH ECUADOR.ON MONDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ENHANCE THE
DIFFLUENCE PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS TO THE NORTHWEST OF SOUTH
AMERICA. A MAXIMA OF 30-50MM IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN COLUMBIA.
NORTHERN COLUMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRASIL  MAXIMA
OF 20-40 RANGE IS EXPECTED.

IN NORTHERN EAST SOUTH AMERICA...EASTERLY WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ/NET AS THEY PROPAGATE TO THE WEST... WILL
FAVOR CONVECTION IN FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA...WITH A MAXIMUM
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ON MONDAY. AREAS ALONG THE COAST CAN EXPECT
A RANGE 25-50MM.

LEDESMA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)/ CLARKE (CAYMAN ISLANDS)